The honest answer is: we’re not close to a single “oil replacement.” Instead, three technologies are sorting themselves into different lanes, and one of them has already lost the mass-market race. Batteries: already winning where it matters most For passenger cars and most light trucks, the battle is over. Global electric car sales exceeded 20 million in 2025, reaching about 25 percent of total car sales, with the IEA expecting growth to roughly 28 percent of total car sales in 2026.