Energy Vault (NRGV) Guides to $600 to $700 Million in 2027 Revenue After a $13 Million Third Quarter
Energy Vault reported third-quarter revenue of $13.1 million on November 10. That’s down about 61% from $33.3 million a year earlier, and it matched what analysts expected. The company told investors in advance that deliveries would land late in the year, and it stuck with full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $290 million to $310 million.
Do the arithmetic and the year looks very back-loaded. The first three quarters add up to about $52 million ($21.9M, $17.4M and $13.1M). Hitting guidance means booking roughly $240 million to $260 million in the fourth quarter alone. Management says expected Q4 project deliveries support that. It’s still a big bet on one quarter.
The numbers that moved
Contract backlog reached $2.3 billion as of November 10, up 15% from the prior quarter and 147% from a year ago. Cash rose to $236 million, up about 59% in the quarter, and corporate recourse debt fell $12 million.
Gross margin looks odd this quarter. GAAP gross margin was 71% and adjusted gross margin 81.1%, both lifted by tariff refunds. Strip those out and the figures fall to 37.9% and 48.0%. On $13 million of revenue, one-off items swing the percentages a lot.
The first look at 2027 is the headline: revenue of $600 million to $700 million and adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $50 million. Much of that rests on the 1.25 GW integrated power, storage and software contract for hyperscaler sites in Texas, signed in the second quarter, which the company said would bring $500 million to $600 million of revenue across late 2026 and 2027.
From batteries to powered land
Energy Vault started as a gravity storage company and then became a battery integrator. Now it’s pitching itself as an owner of energy infrastructure for grids and AI compute. The third quarter added to that shift:
- A second 2026 portfolio purchase, from Goshe Energy Storage, covering 2.3 GW of projects with 350 MW ready to build, paid in full in cash during the quarter.
- Grid interconnection approval for the 125 MW / 1 GWh Stoney Creek battery project in Australia.
- Italy’s government named Digital Vault Sulcis, an AI infrastructure development in Sardinia, a project of pre-eminent national strategic interest.
- Several project financings underway in the US and Australia.
The own-and-operate model trades lumpy equipment sales for long-term contracted income. That’s why the backlog keeps climbing while quarterly revenue jumps around. Investors are being asked to look through the quarter to the contracts.
The test comes in February, when Energy Vault reports the fourth quarter. If the deliveries land, 2027 guidance gets a lot more credible. For the demand side of the data center build that Energy Vault is chasing, see the AI Capex Tracker on marketanalysis.com.